Image courtesy of Rio Tinto Kennecott

In 2023, the United States achieved a record high for mineral imports, marking an all-time low for supply chain stability. According to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 Minerals Commodity Summaries report, the US was more than 50% reliant on 51 minerals. The US is also 100% net import reliant for 15 of those 51 minerals, 12 of which are deemed “critical” according to the USGS’ 2022 Final List of Critical Minerals. In 2024, not much has changed. The US is more than 50% reliant on 49 minerals and 100% reliant on the same 15. For the country to achieve a secure green energy transition, it is critical to ensure a supply of domestically produced material. 

The US government pledged net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and that 50% of vehicles sold by 2030 will be electric. To reach carbon neutrality, 90% of electricity must be generated by renewable technologies. It is estimated that 384 mines must be built by 2035 to meet EV and energy storage battery demand alone, according to Benchmark Intelligence. This does not factor in the materials needed for solar panels, wind turbines, or electrical infrastructure. The outlook is bleak: the share of fossil fuels in global energy use decreased only 4% from 1997 to 2022, according to Vaclav Smil’s “Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050” report. Though not impossible, to achieve net-zero, affluent countries like the US will incur minimum costs of 20% of annual GDP. Based on 2023’s GDP, that would be equivalent to US$5.47 trillion. However, mining of metals and minerals contributed US$185 billion to the country’s GDP in 2023, according to the USGS’s 2024 Minerals Commodity Summaries report. 

The government’s aggressive plans to advance the green energy transition lacks the backing of domestically produced raw material. The US is import reliant for the entire battery supply chain, and for the materials needed to produce renewable energy and storage technologies. Geopolitical tensions could sever the US’s hopes for a cleaner future at the swing of a pickaxe. “It is in our best interest to figure out how to utilize our country’s own resources so that we do not put ourselves in a position where others can dictate what we have access to,” said Tawana Bain, CEO of American Clean Resources Group, a firm turning to tailings to help the US gain self-sufficiency. Copper, one of the leading metals for the transition, may not shine a bright as gold, but is equally the United States' plunder. Lately, the metal has been treated as fool’s gold. Import reliance for copper grew 5% from 2023 to 2024. This reliance will only increase as American demand for copper will far outstrip supply in the coming years. Currently the US is lacking both raw and refined supply, housing only two functional smelters. Despite its critical role in the green energy transition and being 46% import reliant on the metal, copper is not defined as a critical mineral by the US government. The USGS even denied a bipartisan request to add copper to the list. 

Nevada: a lithium island
Capital markets have been hesitant to invest in the lithium space, given the commodity’s poor performance over the past 12 months. The US government has been especially involved in this space. While capital markets require quick returns, the US government is looking longer term, seeing lithium through the lens of green energy transition demand.

Given its geology, Nevada has emerged as the leader in the lithium space. Processing capabilities, however, are lagging. “Nevada is one of the few places on the planet with large enough critical element deposits to support multigenerational activity in mining, extraction, and advanced manufacturing. However, there is a large gap in processing abilities. Nevada is currently a net exporter of raw critical element ore to China,” explained Frederick Steinmann, director, University Center for Economic Development, University of Nevada, Reno (UNR).

In 2023, the UNR received US$1 million in financing from the NSF’s Regional Innovation Engines program. “We recognize the processing and refining gaps and are attempting to bring in new technologies and improve old ones. We are working with consultancies and venture capital firms to provide information, knowledge, sophistication, and support to move towards commercialization,” highlighted Erica Hall, senior project manager at UNR.

The Biden-Harris administration declared goals of ensuring 50% of vehicle sales will be electric by 2030. Nevada received four federal investments as the US aims to increase market share in the battery space. Under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the DOE awarded a sum of US$4.62 billion to 35 projects in 2022 and 2023. Three are in Nevada. 

Recycling: Opening a new treasure chest
At 29 years, the lead time to bring a mine into production in the US is second only to Zambia. This timeline immediately extinguishes any hopes of a domestically sourced green energy transition. Recycling firms are surfacing to provide an alternative. 

There is an estimated 280 billion t of inactive tailings deposits worldwide, estimated to contain trillions in estimated value of precious, critical and strategic metals. Reprocessing this material is a no-brainer according to Bain of American Clean Resources Group: “The reintroduction of minerals and metals that were once considered waste into the supply chain not only diversifies our sources of supply but also advances America's goal of self-reliance. This shift has the potential to transform the mining industry in the United States, creating safer job opportunities and redefining the sector’s future." 

The firm is starting with the tailings contained in the 1,183 acres of their Tonopah property in Nevada. 

In parallel, ABTC and Redwood materials are recycling batteries in Nevada. With its lithium extraction and battery recycling, ABTC created a loop: “A closed-loop supply chain differs from the traditional hydrocarbon economy, where resources are used once and depleted. For elements like lithium, having strong partnerships, with refiners, manufacturers, OEMs and others allows us to maintain control over these materials indefinitely,” said Ryan Melsert, CEO and CTO, American Battery Technology Company. 

Solar panels are providing another type of recycling feedstock, “100,000 t of waste solar panels are generated annually, mostly from California, Arizona, and Nevada. By 2030, this is expected to rise to 1 million t,” said Corrado De Gasperis, executive chairman and CEO, Comstock Inc.

In 2023, Comstock Metals, a subsidiary of Comstock Inc., established a commercial demonstration facility. “We are proving that we can economically recycle 100% of end-of-life solar panels. These materials include glass, silica, aluminum, copper, and a high-silver-content metallurgical ore,” added De Gasperis. 

Walk the plank
There is one critical resource where the shortage is due to limited deposits, not regulations: talent. 71% of mining leaders say the talent shortage keeps them from delivering on production targets, according to McKinsey, exacerbating the supply problem further. 

While the mining industry will consistently add between 11,000 and 13,000 jobs annually for the next 20 years, the number of people entering the workforce dwindles. In April 2023, the US mining sector had 36,000 job vacancies, up from 27,000 in 2022. US mining graduates declined by 39%, with only 600 mining engineering students across the US in 2022, a sharp decrease from 1,500 in 2015. The University of Arizona, representing approximately 10% of mining engineering undergraduate students, typically maintains an undergraduate class size of about 60 students. This, however, has become increasingly difficult. "The latest data indicates that the university has maintained steady enrollment in our mining engineering program at a time when enrollment figures nationally have declined 30%," noted Jodi Banta, program manager and workforce development researcher at the University of Arizona School of Mining and Mineral Resources.

A substantial portion of the decline is indebted to a lack of visibility. Banta emphasized: “A major challenge in recruiting talent for the mining industry is its low visibility, making it less attractive compared to more well-known fields. Many students lack familiarity with mining and struggle to envision a career in it.”

This shortage presents an imminent challenge. According to the Society for Mining, Metallurgy, and Exploration (SME), around 220,000 US mining workers are expected to retire by 2029. This mass exodus will leave a significant knowledge and skill gap that must be addressed, particularly as the demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths continues to grow.

The talent shortage affects the entire mining value chain from exploration to engineering, operations, and sustainability roles. According to the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), the global shift toward automation and digitalization requires highly specialized skills, further compounding the talent gap. New roles, such as data scientists, geospatial analysts, and artificial intelligence (AI) specialists, are becoming increasingly vital. “The mining industry is currently contending with significant macro trends that hinder effective data utilization, most notably the shortage of skilled talent such as mining engineers and geologists,” noted Rob Hardman, president and general manager for North America at Maptek. 

In September 2023, the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources introduced the Mining Schools Act of 2023, a bipartisan legislation allocating US$10 million per year, from 2024 to 2031, to a grant program for mining schools in an effort to recruit more students. 

A solution to the root of the problem must start early in the education system. “Research revealed a critical lack of awareness about mining careers, highlighted by a survey showing that 60% of American science teachers felt unqualified to recommend mining. To combat this, SMMR launched a mining and minerals teachers’ academy for high school and middle school science teachers. This is in addition to our well established K-12 education outreach program, which reaches over 6,000 students and hundreds of teachers annually,” shared Banta. 

However, technology can help to fill the expanding void. “This year, we are on track to receive over 20,000 employment applications, a significant increase from last year's 11,000,” started Keaton Turner, founder, president and CEO at Turner Mining Group. “This surge reflects our robust social media efforts to not only promote our brand but also highlight opportunities within the mining sector, particularly in the US,” he continued. 

The US must urgently prioritize self-sufficiency in critical minerals by increasing domestic production, driving innovation in recycling, and bridging the growing talent gap. These steps are crucial for establishing the nation's leadership in the global green energy transition and ensuring economic and strategic stability. The time to act is now, before external dependencies turn the tide against American energy independence. With the moon full, it is not a question of if the tide will change, but when—and the US must be prepared to rise with the tide.