Image courtesy of Las Bambas

The fact that GBR has been producing this report on the Peruvian mining industry for so long —16 years, in fact— has forged a strong sense of familiarity with many of the sector's leading companies and their executives. It is pretty common for meetings to start with a casual "So, how's 2025 treating you so far?" This year, and unlike the previous two years, their response was generally both surprising and refreshing: "Busy as ever." 

Over the past two years, different events have impacted the industry's performance (political instability, widespread social unrest, etc.), however, this year, what used to be slow summer months in Lima have become bustling weeks of activity, so that 2025 has kicked off with a lot of energy. "2025 has started with more momentum than in previous years, with a noticeable increase in work in Peru and abroad. In the last quarter of 2024, our engineering division saw a strong surge in industry demand—almost like a wake-up call—driving the need to meet tighter deadlines and expand services. It took a considerable effort on our part. Still, we succeeded and tackled it with dedication and commitment," commented Guillermo Barreda, general manager for Peru at the consultancy and engineering firm Knight Piésold.

Further down the value chain, Kai Rothgiesser, general manager for Peru at Bosch Rexroth, shared:  "Although 2024 started off slowly, the second half saw a surge in activity that has carried into 2025. The mining sector regained momentum, and operations are running more smoothly, without major conflicts disrupting production or logistics." 

In the production segment, Adolfo Vera, president and CEO at Southern Peaks Mining, briefly stated: "For 2025 we are seeing promising results." 

Without quoting all 50 C-level executives interviewed for this report at the start of 2025, suffice to say that GBR met with more optimism and a much better mood this year than we encountered in our past two editions. This was, indeed, refreshing. 

But what is driving this optimistic outlook? This year, commodity prices, especially for copper and gold, have taken center stage in our conversations. Another key theme among all interviewees was the upcoming presidential elections in 2026 and the current sense of political stability that most believe the country is experiencing: "The election of Pedro Castillo made the industry nervous and prompted us to consider becoming less dependent on Peru. In the end, however, Peru has remained stable," commented Carlos Dellepiane, general manager of TUMI Raise Boring. 

That said, it can be challenging to understand precisely what Peruvian executives mean by stability. From a macro perspective, it is hard to argue that Peru has experienced much of it. Since the 2022 elections, the country has seen four ministers of mines, two premiers, and multiple ministers of economy—hardly a sign of stability. The only way stability can be perceived, in the broadest sense, is that Dina Boluarte will likely complete her presidential mandate, with the next elections set for April 2026. This would mark the end of a chapter that began in December 2022, marked by social unrest that took a toll on the industry. 

More than two years later, Boluarte remains in office. But what has she done for the mining industry? Several initiatives have been advanced in the mining policy conversation. One of them is the Ventanilla Única Digital (one-stop-shop, or VUD). Since it was first unveiled in 2019, implementation of the VUD has been ongoing, with exploration permitting included in February 2024. The system promises integrated digitalization, thereby reducing form filling – both physical and digital – and bringing together permitting processes across government departments. Subsequent phases will incorporate mining exploitation activities and benefit concessions processes. Additionally, water permitting – previously a separate and sequential step – was integrated into the broader DIA licensing process in 2023, illustrating an avenue for efficiency savings in environmental permitting. However, the VUD is not expected to be fully implemented until July 2025. 

Another interesting and recent initiative was the establishment of a multisectoral committee in October 2024 to formulate the National Multisectoral Mining Policy for 2050 (PNMM 2050). The PNMM 2050 is a state policy with a long-term vision aimed at identifying and addressing national priority issues related to the sustainability and competitiveness of mining. 

The two initiatives mentioned above remain just that – initiatives - yet to be converted into concrete actions. However, one thing that must be acknowledged about Boluarte is that, at the very least, she has not directed negative messages about the industry to Peruvians, as Castillo did. "Mining remains a key driver of the national economy, creating jobs, infrastructure and promoting development across the country," stated Boluarte during her appearance at the XV Simposio held in May 2024 in Lima. 

While it is often said that actions speak louder than words, Boluarte's words carry significant weight given the social context of Peru. "From a foreign investor's perspective, Peru currently stands out as one of the most solid and stable options in South America, which is surprising given its challenges. Political stability is a key factor. While the current government's management may not be the best, it has at least allowed for some progress, which could help build investor confidence. The current government must complete its term, and the upcoming elections must be transparent and democratic to strengthen Peru's image as a reliable destination for foreign capital," reflected Mendoza from Anddes. 

"While there are modest advances in some major projects, such as Tía María and Zafranal, it is crucial to establish strong incentives and address structural issues to better capitalize on international conditions and attract more foreign investment," added Marcial García, partner at EY. 

The reality is that both projects and several others in the pipeline have been in development for a long time. Grupo México, the owner of Southern Peru, has increased Tía María's  CapEx to US$1.8 billion. Meanwhile, Zafranal (a joint venture between Teck and Mitsubishi) is progressing and, according to media reports, the newly appointed general manager, Gisella Lombardi, stated that detailed engineering is expected to be completed in the second half of 2025. 

In the meantime, those projects already in operation continued ‘business as usual’—as Dan Etheredge, vice president and principal for Latin America at Klohn Crippen Berger (KCB), described: "We had a strange year in 2024. The dramatic drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) across Latin America over the last couple of years finally took its toll, which made it hard for KCB to grow at the rates we have been here in recent years. As a result, most of our projects in Peru this past year have been centered on active mines, which have less to worry about regarding attracting FDI or around social unrest and political problems." 

However, the real question lies in what will happen with the new projects that must eventually come online to replace the existing ones. After all, mines are not everlasting.  Most interviewees were optimistic about Peru's future: "If the upcoming electoral campaign and elections do not negatively impact mining investment but, on the contrary, drive it to continue growing, we will see a wave of new mining projects that have been on hold for years. With their activation, the demand for environmental impact studies, baseline assessments, and other key analyses will increase," asserted Barreda from Knight Piésold. 

César Kahatt, senior vice president and regional mining practice leader for Marsh McLennan, acknowledged that elections tend to generate uncertainty in investments. However, he assured that greenfield projects would not be significantly affected: "They can take more than 10 years from exploration to production and are more likely to move forward regardless of the electoral context, as their execution horizon is much broader. Companies with projects where the feasibility study is already completed and are about to start construction or seek financing might choose to wait and see the outcome of the elections," he concluded. 

A safe bet 

In January, Barrick Gold halted operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali after the military seized three tons of gold and transferred it to the state-owned Banque Malienne de Solidarité in Bamako. Comparing Mali and Peru may not be fair; however, the incident raises the question of whether Peru's political climate factors into investment decisions for producers and junior miners. "Mining makes up a very large part of the country’s GDP, which makes it a very stable industry politically. Compare that to other international jurisdictions; some come with huge political and security risks that make investment challenging. Even if your grades look fantastic, you might have your project taken away from you. That is not the case in Peru," commented Chris Buncic, president and CEO at Condor Resources. 

Discussing the much anticipated "supercycle" versus the one in 2011, Marcial García of EY commented: "The circumstances are somewhat different. Back then, prices were driven by global demand, mainly fueled by China's construction boom. Now, the energy transition is the key driver. This structural shift is significant, and in this context, countries like Peru and Chile have a historic opportunity if they can maintain an attractive environment for investment." 

From Chancay to Shanghai 

"Our goal is to become the Singapore of Latin America, ensuring that port cargo passes through here on its way to Asia," stated Raúl Pérez Reyes Espejo, Peru's Minister of Transport and Communications, referring to the recently inaugurated Chancay Port. 

Built by China, the port is set to become South America's largest commercial hub. After eight years of construction, the first phase of this mega-port has been completed. It is owned by a joint venture between Cosco Shipping, a Chinese state-owned company (60%), and Volcan, a Peruvian zinc and lead producer (40%). Inaugurated in November 2024 by Peru's President Dina Boluarte alongside China's Xi Jinping, the port 70 km north of Lima has become a flagship project under China's Belt and Road Initiative. For Peru, it represents a significant trade opportunity, aiming to capture a share of the US$580 billion in annual commerce between China and South America. 

GBR spoke with Carlos Tejada, deputy general manager at Cosco Shipping (Puerto de Chancay), who detailed the port's four-phase development plan, with a total investment of US$4 billion: "In this first phase, we have already invested US$1.3 billion, which includes the construction of four docks totaling 1,500 linear m, with two dedicated to general cargo and bulk shipments. Additionally, there is an 860-m berthing front for container ships," he explained. 

Much hype surrounds the port's impact on the mining industry. Due to Chancay's location in an archaeologically significant area, Tejada noted that it currently handles general cargo and containerized minerals but lacks permits for bulk mineral exports. Whether bulk minerals will be included in future phases depends on market demand. "We have exported silver concentrates to other countries, but it is still uncertain whether bulk mineral handling will be incorporated. This will depend on market evolution and demand," he said. 

As you will read in the following pages, costs remain a key concern for many, especially producers. The new port is expected to shorten transit times to and from Asia, reducing shipping duration from 45 to 23 days, according to Tejada. The question is whether this reduction will impact costs. "Optimizing the entire value chain is crucial. The Port of Chancay should significantly lower the cost of imported goods from China. The delivery time for key supplies, such as grinding balls and tires, could be cut in half, reducing both logistical and storage expenses. This would allow companies to avoid maintaining large and costly inventories," commented Pamela Florian, country manager for Peru at Hatch. 

However, opinions are mixed. Adolfo Vera, president and CEO of Southern Peaks Mining, acknowledged that shorter voyages might slightly influence prices, but he expects it to be a gradual and moderate impact: "The stabilization of urea prices or potential pressure on OPEC to increase oil production could have a greater influence on costs," he noted.

Roxana Burgos, general manager at Movitécnica, a conveyor belt company, remains skeptical of Chancay's short-term economic benefits. "We primarily import from Asia and assemble our products in Peru. However, we do not foresee Chancay making a difference in the short term. We still operate through Callao, as Chancay is not yet fully operational. Additionally, inland transportation costs remain high due to the lack of alternative roads connecting the Chancay port to Lima," she explained. 

Sino-Peruvian ties run deep. Peru was the first Latin American country to establish diplomatic relations with China in 1874, and relations continue strengthening. Both nations are members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and signed a Free Trade Agreement in 2009. But perhaps more importantly, China remains Peru's largest investor in the mining sector. 

As of March 2024, Chinese companies accounted for 20.8% of Peru's mining investment portfolio, totaling US$11.37 billion across seven projects, including Chinalco, Las Bambas and La Arena, following Zijin Mining's acquisition of Pan American Silver's asset. As the push for "mined in America" policies grows, China is steadily expanding its influence in South America—particularly in Peru and Chile—where raw copper exports to Asia have risen.