PUBLICATION
Turkey Power 2015 Pre-Release
Emerging markets, even those that seek to defy it, are inextricably the product of their past. The role that the legacy of bureaucracy plays in shaping institutional power structures and the way in which cronyism manifests itself are determined by the historical shape of a country. Real junctures in a country’s development are rare. Opportunities for a country to decidedly separate itself from the past – to reform, transform and democratize it – do not come often. Turkey, and as an extension of it the country’s energy sector, has long stood at one such juncture. Today, the path which Turkey chooses will determine the country’s ability to answer one of its most pressing macroeconomic concerns: the dual challenge of possessing one of the world’s most rapidly growing energy markets while containing little known hydrocarbon resources.
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It is said that mining is a patient industry. Current demand projections are not. Demand for minerals deemed ‘critical’ is set to increase almost fourfold by 2030, according to the UN. Demand for nickel, cobalt and lithium is predicted to double, triple and rise ten-fold, respectively, between 2022 and 2050. The world will need to mine more copper between 2018 and 2050 than it has mined throughout history. 2050 is also the deadline to curb emissions before reaching a point of ‘no return.’ The pace of mineral demand and the consequences of not meeting it force the industry to act fast and take more risks. Mining cannot afford to be a patient industry anymore. The scramble for supply drives miners back to geological credentials, and therefore to places like the African Central Copperbelt.
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