Can you give an overview of the current economic and political challenges facing Nigeria?

Nigeria is in a precarious position. One major challenge facing the economy is unemployment, which remained at 40% in 2018, since when the National Bureau of Statistics has not released an update. Therefore, we can conclude that unemployment has risen since then, as the economy’s slow growth does not produce enough jobs for our rapidly growing population. The government relies on one source of revenue: oil – which is problematic considering the volatile nature of the industry whereby high oil prices increase government revenues and subsidies. Nigeria’s limited refining capacity is stalling the industry’s and the country’s growth.

There is a fiscal issue facing the country since the government is unable to fund its growing budget. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, in 2018 the government was unable to pay salaries from oil revenues and had to borrow to finance its expenses. Nigerian debt has grown to significant levels; 60% of revenues goes to paying this debt. Meanwhile, in terms of monetary policy, interest rates and inflation are high, currently over 12%, which is problematic for the large proportion of the Nigerian population who live below the poverty line.

On the other hand, the service sector, especially telecommunications, agriculture and entertainment, is growing. Nigeria has a robust financial services sector and one of the biggest stock markets in Africa. A lot of the US$5.8 billion invested in the African technology market was directed at Nigeria.

The Petroleum Industry Bill’s delay and oil theft are major issues facing the oil industry. Dangote’s refinery is, however, a huge contribution to the industry, with an expected production of 650,000 bpd.

How has President Buhari’s leadership impacted the oil and gas industry?

The NLNG Train 7 agreement that was signed is one of the biggest infrastructural investments in the oil and gas industry, which was made possible by President Buhari’s administration. Nonetheless, the Petroleum Industry Bill is yet to be signed which is causing uncertainty and is stalling development, even though it was one of his campaign promises.

Who are the biggest foreign players in Nigeria?

Due to the current administration’s protectionist policies, foreign investment has decreased since the government is perceived to be hostile towards investment.

Telecommunications has attracted a large amount of foreign investment due to Nigeria’s growing population. There has been also some investment in agriculture, fertilisers and power generation. The LLNG train 7 is the highlight in terms of investment in the oil and gas industry.

What are the biggest security issues facing Nigeria?

In the north-east there is the active insurgency of Boko Haram, which has broken up into two components: Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) with affiliations to ISIS. Boko Haram, led by Abubakar Shekau, has no problem with innocent civilian casualties while ISWAP is trying to build legitimacy among civilians so their attacks are directed at the military. In the north-west there is a banditry issue, especially in the villages where bandits self-appoint themselves as judges for local disputes. Meanwhile in north-central Nigeria, sources of conflict arise from the clash between the farmers and herdsmen spilling over in some south-west territories, resulting in more deaths than Boko Haram did. All these regions are linked by highways with a risk of kidnappings, so the most preferred form of transportation is by flying. Ransoms are as low as US$2,000. The south-west of Nigeria is the safest. The military is a bigger security issue in the south-east. In the Niger Delta, also known as the south-south, the government has made a choice to turn a blind eye to oil theft. The Niger Delta is relatively peaceful compared to other regions.

In terms of borders, Nigeria’s shared border with Cameroon is fluid so the spill-over from the civil war in Cameroon causes instability there.

The northern border is plagued with conflict as well as the eastern with the Boko Haram conflict. Meanwhile piracy is an issue on the maritime borders. The only peaceful border is the one we share with Benin.